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Sortland vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Sortland
Sortland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alta II
Alta II
A. Jorgensen 69'
J. Berg 57'
N. Martynenko 81'
S. Bjorna 20'
3/30/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 1Blåbyhallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sortland47%
×Draw19%
Alta II34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sortland
2.62
Alta II
2.23

Sortland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sortland
1.31
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Sortland
3.00
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Sortland+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sortland ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Sortland or draw
66%
Sortland or Alta II
81%
Draw or Alta II
53%

Winning margin

Sortland wins by 2+
29%
Alta II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sortland 1+ goals
93%
Sortland 2+ goals
73%
Sortland 3+ goals
48%
Alta II 1+ goals
89%
Alta II 2+ goals
65%
Alta II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sortland (draw refunded)
58%
Alta II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sortland at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sortland attack 1.31 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.62

Alta II attack 1.46 + Sortland defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sortland scores more
47%
level
19%
Alta II scores more
34%

Sortland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sortland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
S. Bjorna
57'
J. Berg
69'
A. Jorgensen
81'
N. Martynenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sortland vs Alta II

Sortland and Alta II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on March 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Bjorna (20'), J. Berg (57'), A. Jorgensen (69'), N. Martynenko (81').

The match was played at Blåbyhallen in Sortland.