Sorriso 1–2 Sinop Fc: Result & Stats

Sorriso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sinop Fc

4/25/2026

Matogrossense 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sorriso61%

×Draw19%

Sinop Fc20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorrisoExpected goals in this matchSinop Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.30

Sorriso

2.40

Sinop Fc

1.30

Sorriso creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

4.00

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Sorriso

4.00

Sinop Fc

1.60

allows per match

Sorriso

1.00

Sinop Fc

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sorriso+0.00on par

Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorriso ↓

Sinop Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sorriso or draw

80%

Sorriso or Sinop Fc

81%

Draw or Sinop Fc

39%

Winning margin

Sorriso wins by 2+

40%

Sinop Fc wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sorriso 1+ goals

91%

Sorriso 2+ goals

69%

Sorriso 3+ goals

42%

Sinop Fc 1+ goals

73%

Sinop Fc 2+ goals

37%

Sinop Fc 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sorriso (draw refunded)

76%

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorriso at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorriso attack 4.00 + Sinop Fc defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Sinop Fc attack 1.60 + Sorriso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sorriso scores more

61%

level

19%

Sinop Fc scores more

20%

Sorriso at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff