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Sorriso vs Chapada — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sorriso
Sorriso
FT
2 – 0
Chapada
Chapada
6/18/2025Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sorriso68%
×Draw18%
Chapada14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorriso
2.38
Chapada
1.00

Sorriso creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sorriso
3.50
Chapada
1.25

allows per match

Sorriso
0.75
Chapada
1.25

finishing

Sorriso+0.00on par
Chapada+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorriso ↓

Chapada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sorriso or draw
86%
Sorriso or Chapada
82%
Draw or Chapada
32%

Winning margin

Sorriso wins by 2+
45%
Chapada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sorriso 1+ goals
91%
Sorriso 2+ goals
68%
Sorriso 3+ goals
42%
Chapada 1+ goals
63%
Chapada 2+ goals
26%
Chapada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sorriso (draw refunded)
82%
Chapada (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorriso at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Chapada away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorriso attack 3.50 + Chapada defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Chapada attack 1.25 + Sorriso defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sorriso scores more
68%
level
18%
Chapada scores more
14%

Sorriso at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sorriso vs Chapada

Sorriso beat Chapada 2-0 in Matogrossense 2 on June 18, 2025.