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Sorrento vs Tivoli — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tivoli
Tivoli
10/2/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sorrento55%
×Draw24%
Tivoli21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
1.71
Tivoli
0.95

Sorrento creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sorrento
1.82
Tivoli
1.24

allows per match

Sorrento
0.65
Tivoli
1.59

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

Tivoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
79%
Sorrento or Tivoli
76%
Draw or Tivoli
45%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
30%
Tivoli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
82%
Sorrento 2+ goals
51%
Sorrento 3+ goals
24%
Tivoli 1+ goals
61%
Tivoli 2+ goals
25%
Tivoli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
73%
Tivoli (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 1.82 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Sorrento defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sorrento scores more
55%
level
24%
Tivoli scores more
21%

Sorrento at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Sorrento 2–1 Tivoli

Sorrento beat Tivoli 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Italia in Sorrento.