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Sorrento vs Lupa Roma — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lupa Roma
Lupa Roma
4/30/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 33Stadio Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sorrento52%
×Draw28%
Lupa Roma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
1.38
Lupa Roma
0.73

Sorrento creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sorrento
1.82
Lupa Roma
0.82

allows per match

Sorrento
0.65
Lupa Roma
0.94

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

Lupa Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
80%
Sorrento or Lupa Roma
72%
Draw or Lupa Roma
48%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
26%
Lupa Roma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
75%
Sorrento 2+ goals
40%
Sorrento 3+ goals
16%
Lupa Roma 1+ goals
52%
Lupa Roma 2+ goals
17%
Lupa Roma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
73%
Lupa Roma (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 1.82 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Sorrento defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sorrento scores more
52%
level
28%
Lupa Roma scores more
20%

Sorrento at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sorrento vs Lupa Roma

Sorrento beat Lupa Roma 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Italia in Sorrento.