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Sorrento vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
6/15/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 11Percy Doyle Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sorrento82%
×Draw12%
Gosnells City6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
3.09
Gosnells City
0.78

Sorrento creates 296% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sorrento
3.91
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

Sorrento
0.64
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
94%
Sorrento or Gosnells City
88%
Draw or Gosnells City
18%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
63%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
95%
Sorrento 2+ goals
81%
Sorrento 3+ goals
58%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
54%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
18%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
93%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 3.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 3.91 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 3.09

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Sorrento defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sorrento scores more
82%
level
12%
Gosnells City scores more
6%

Sorrento at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Sorrento 2–0 Gosnells City

Sorrento beat Gosnells City 2-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Percy Doyle Reserve A in Perth.