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Sorrento vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
4 – 1
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
3/23/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 1Percy Doyle Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sorrento79%
×Draw11%
ECU Joondalup9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
3.78
ECU Joondalup
1.32

Sorrento creates 186% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sorrento
3.91
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Sorrento
0.64
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
91%
Sorrento or ECU Joondalup
89%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
21%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
62%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
97%
Sorrento 2+ goals
88%
Sorrento 3+ goals
70%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
73%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
38%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
89%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 3.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 3.91 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.78

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Sorrento defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sorrento scores more
79%
level
11%
ECU Joondalup scores more
9%

Sorrento at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Sorrento 4–1 ECU Joondalup

Sorrento beat ECU Joondalup 4-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Percy Doyle Reserve A in Perth.