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Sorrento vs Angri Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sorrento
Sorrento
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
1/18/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 17Stadio Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sorrento54%
×Draw24%
Angri Calcio22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sorrento
1.71
Angri Calcio
1.00

Sorrento creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sorrento
1.82
Angri Calcio
1.35

allows per match

Sorrento
0.65
Angri Calcio
1.59

finishing

Sorrento+0.00on par
Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sorrento ↓

Angri Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sorrento or draw
78%
Sorrento or Angri Calcio
76%
Draw or Angri Calcio
46%

Winning margin

Sorrento wins by 2+
30%
Angri Calcio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sorrento 1+ goals
82%
Sorrento 2+ goals
51%
Sorrento 3+ goals
24%
Angri Calcio 1+ goals
63%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
26%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sorrento (draw refunded)
71%
Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sorrento at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sorrento attack 1.82 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Sorrento defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sorrento scores more
54%
level
24%
Angri Calcio scores more
22%

Sorrento at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sorrento vs Angri Calcio

Sorrento beat Angri Calcio 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Italia in Sorrento.