SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 4–0 Sepidrood Rasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

FT

4 – 0

Sepidrood Rasht

10/5/2019

Azadegan League · Round 7Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht57%

×Draw25%

Sepidrood Rasht18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorkhPooshan PakdashtExpected goals in this matchSepidrood Rasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.79

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.63

Sepidrood Rasht

0.79

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 106% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

1.66

creates per match

0.59

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.66

Sepidrood Rasht

0.59

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.00

Sepidrood Rasht

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw

82%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Sepidrood Rasht

75%

Draw or Sepidrood Rasht

43%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

31%

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

80%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

48%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

22%

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals

55%

Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals

19%

Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

76%

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

57%

level

25%

Sepidrood Rasht scores more

18%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff