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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
0 – 2
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
1/24/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht51%
×Draw26%
Qashqai Shiraz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.50
Qashqai Shiraz
0.92

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 69 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
77%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Qashqai Shiraz
74%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
49%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
26%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
78%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
44%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
19%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
60%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
23%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
69%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
51%
level
26%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
23%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 0–2 Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2-0 in Azadegan League on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran)).