SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 0–0 Navad Urmia

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

FT

0 – 0

Navad Urmia

10/24/2019

Azadegan League · Round 9Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht53%

×Draw28%

Navad Urmia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SorkhPooshan PakdashtExpected goals in this matchNavad Urmia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.69

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.37

Navad Urmia

0.69

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 99% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

1.66

creates per match

0.38

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.66

Navad Urmia

0.38

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

1.00

Navad Urmia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Navad Urmia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw

81%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Navad Urmia

72%

Draw or Navad Urmia

47%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+

26%

Navad Urmia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals

75%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals

40%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals

16%

Navad Urmia 1+ goals

50%

Navad Urmia 2+ goals

15%

Navad Urmia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)

74%

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.37

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more

53%

level

28%

Navad Urmia scores more

19%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff