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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
6 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
8/19/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht71%
×Draw18%
Machine Sazi FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
2.33
Machine Sazi FC
0.83

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 181% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
88%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Machine Sazi FC
82%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
29%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
47%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
90%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
67%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
41%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
56%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
20%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
86%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
71%
level
18%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
12%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Machine Sazi FC

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Machine Sazi FC 6-0 in Azadegan League on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium (Tehrān (Teheran)).