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SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
8/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht49%
×Draw27%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.40
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.89

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 84 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
76%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
73%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
51%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
24%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
75%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
41%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
17%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
59%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
22%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
67%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
49%
level
27%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
24%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2-0 in Azadegan League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium in Eslamshahr.