Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
FT
1 – 1
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
12/6/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht51%
×Draw26%
Arman Gohar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.55
Arman Gohar
0.95

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 68 away

creates per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.66
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.00
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or draw
77%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht or Arman Gohar
74%
Draw or Arman Gohar
49%

Winning margin

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
27%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
79%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
46%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
20%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
61%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
25%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
69%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.66 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
51%
level
26%
Arman Gohar scores more
23%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SorkhPooshan Pakdasht vs Arman Gohar

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht and Arman Gohar drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Eslamshahr Shohada Stadium in Eslamshahr.