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Sony Sugar vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
FT
3 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
5/1/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 27Green Stadium (Awendo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sony Sugar47%
×Draw30%
Vihiga United FC22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.19
Vihiga United FC
0.72

Sony Sugar creates 65% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.19
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.66
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
78%
Sony Sugar or Vihiga United FC
70%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
53%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
21%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
70%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
12%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
51%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
16%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
68%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.19 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Sony Sugar defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
47%
level
30%
Vihiga United FC scores more
22%

Sony Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sony Sugar vs Vihiga United FC

Sony Sugar beat Vihiga United FC 3-1 in FKF Premier League on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Green Stadium (Awendo).