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Sony Sugar vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
CANC
00:00
Tusker
Tusker
2/15/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sony Sugar38%
×Draw30%
Tusker32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.10
Tusker
1.00

Sony Sugar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 146 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.19
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.66
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
68%
Sony Sugar or Tusker
70%
Draw or Tusker
62%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
15%
Tusker wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
10%
Tusker 1+ goals
63%
Tusker 2+ goals
26%
Tusker 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
54%
Tusker (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.19 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tusker attack 1.34 + Sony Sugar defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
38%
level
30%
Tusker scores more
32%

Sony Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sony Sugar vs Tusker — Match Preview

Sony Sugar face Tusker on February 15, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sony Sugar host Tusker at Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.