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Sonthofen vs Unterhaching II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Unterhaching II
Unterhaching II
8/3/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 4Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sonthofen49%
×Draw23%
Unterhaching II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.77
Unterhaching II
1.29

Sonthofen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
Unterhaching II
1.00

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
Unterhaching II
2.19

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

Unterhaching II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
72%
Sonthofen or Unterhaching II
77%
Draw or Unterhaching II
51%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
26%
Unterhaching II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
83%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
53%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
26%
Unterhaching II 1+ goals
72%
Unterhaching II 2+ goals
37%
Unterhaching II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
63%
Unterhaching II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Unterhaching II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + Unterhaching II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sonthofen scores more
49%
level
23%
Unterhaching II scores more
28%

Sonthofen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sonthofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonthofen vs Unterhaching II

Unterhaching II beat Sonthofen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.