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Sonthofen vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
7/22/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 1Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonthofen32%
×Draw24%
Schwaben Augsburg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.34
Schwaben Augsburg
1.61

Schwaben Augsburg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
56%
Sonthofen or Schwaben Augsburg
76%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
68%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
14%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
74%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
39%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
15%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
80%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
48%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
42%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sonthofen scores more
32%
level
24%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
44%

Schwaben Augsburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Sonthofen 0–1 Schwaben Augsburg

Schwaben Augsburg beat Sonthofen 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.