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Sonthofen vs Nordlingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nordlingen
Nordlingen
10/3/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 14Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonthofen37%
×Draw22%
Nordlingen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.69
Nordlingen
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
Nordlingen
1.95

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
Nordlingen
2.03

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

Nordlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
60%
Sonthofen or Nordlingen
78%
Draw or Nordlingen
63%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
19%
Nordlingen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
82%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
50%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
24%
Nordlingen 1+ goals
83%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
53%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
48%
Nordlingen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sonthofen scores more
37%
level
22%
Nordlingen scores more
40%

Nordlingen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nordlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonthofen vs Nordlingen

Sonthofen beat Nordlingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.