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Sonthofen vs Memmingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Memmingen
Memmingen
5/3/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 32Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonthofen27%
×Draw25%
Memmingen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.14
Memmingen
1.58

Memmingen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
Memmingen
1.58

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
Memmingen
0.91

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
Memmingen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

Memmingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
53%
Sonthofen or Memmingen
75%
Draw or Memmingen
73%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
11%
Memmingen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
68%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
32%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
11%
Memmingen 1+ goals
79%
Memmingen 2+ goals
47%
Memmingen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
37%
Memmingen (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Memmingen away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + Memmingen defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Memmingen attack 1.58 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sonthofen scores more
27%
level
25%
Memmingen scores more
47%

Memmingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Memmingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonthofen vs Memmingen

Memmingen beat Sonthofen 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.