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Sonthofen vs Erlbach — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Erlbach
Erlbach
7/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonthofen34%
×Draw26%
Erlbach39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.25
Erlbach
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
Erlbach
1.12

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
Erlbach
1.15

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
Erlbach+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

Erlbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
61%
Sonthofen or Erlbach
74%
Draw or Erlbach
66%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
15%
Erlbach wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
71%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
36%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
13%
Erlbach 1+ goals
74%
Erlbach 2+ goals
39%
Erlbach 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
47%
Erlbach (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Erlbach away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + Erlbach defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Erlbach attack 1.12 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sonthofen scores more
34%
level
26%
Erlbach scores more
39%

Erlbach at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonthofen vs Erlbach

Erlbach beat Sonthofen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.