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Sonthofen vs 1860 München II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Sonthofen
Sonthofen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
1860 München II
1860 München II
9/21/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 12Baumit Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sonthofen32%
×Draw24%
1860 München II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonthofen
1.34
1860 München II
1.63

1860 München II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sonthofen
1.36
1860 München II
1.67

allows per match

Sonthofen
1.58
1860 München II
1.32

finishing

Sonthofen+0.00on par
1860 München II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonthofen ↓

1860 München II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sonthofen or draw
56%
Sonthofen or 1860 München II
76%
Draw or 1860 München II
68%

Winning margin

Sonthofen wins by 2+
14%
1860 München II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sonthofen 1+ goals
74%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
39%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
15%
1860 München II 1+ goals
80%
1860 München II 2+ goals
48%
1860 München II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sonthofen (draw refunded)
42%
1860 München II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonthofen at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

1860 München II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonthofen attack 1.36 + 1860 München II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

1860 München II attack 1.67 + Sonthofen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sonthofen scores more
32%
level
24%
1860 München II scores more
44%

1860 München II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Sonthofen 1–0 1860 München II

Sonthofen beat 1860 München II 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Baumit Arena in Sonthofen.