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Sonsonate vs Municipal Limeño — Primera Division 2019

Sonsonate
Sonsonate
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
2/23/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 8Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sonsonate35%
×Draw27%
Municipal Limeño38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsonate
1.19
Municipal Limeño
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sonsonate
1.06
Municipal Limeño
1.07

allows per match

Sonsonate
1.42
Municipal Limeño
1.32

finishing

Sonsonate+0.00on par
Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsonate ↓

Municipal Limeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sonsonate or draw
62%
Sonsonate or Municipal Limeño
73%
Draw or Municipal Limeño
65%

Winning margin

Sonsonate wins by 2+
15%
Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sonsonate 1+ goals
70%
Sonsonate 2+ goals
33%
Sonsonate 3+ goals
12%
Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
71%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
36%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sonsonate (draw refunded)
48%
Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsonate at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsonate attack 1.06 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Sonsonate defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sonsonate scores more
35%
level
27%
Municipal Limeño scores more
38%

Municipal Limeño at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonsonate vs Municipal Limeño

Municipal Limeño beat Sonsonate 3-0 in Primera Division on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos in Sonsonate.