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Sonsonate vs Atlético Marte — Primera Division 2019

Sonsonate
Sonsonate
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
11/26/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sonsonate41%
×Draw27%
Atlético Marte33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsonate
1.34
Atlético Marte
1.17

Sonsonate creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sonsonate
1.06
Atlético Marte
0.91

allows per match

Sonsonate
1.42
Atlético Marte
1.63

finishing

Sonsonate+0.00on par
Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsonate ↓

Atlético Marte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sonsonate or draw
67%
Sonsonate or Atlético Marte
73%
Draw or Atlético Marte
59%

Winning margin

Sonsonate wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Marte wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sonsonate 1+ goals
74%
Sonsonate 2+ goals
39%
Sonsonate 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Marte 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sonsonate (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsonate at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsonate attack 1.06 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Sonsonate defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sonsonate scores more
41%
level
27%
Atlético Marte scores more
33%

Sonsonate at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sonsonate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Sonsonate 2–2 Atlético Marte

Sonsonate and Atlético Marte drew 2-2 in Primera Division on November 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Anna Mercedes Campos in Sonsonate.