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Sonseca vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Sonseca
Sonseca
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Tarancón
Tarancón
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Estadio Martín Juanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sonseca26%
×Draw26%
Tarancón47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonseca
1.02
Tarancón
1.46

Tarancón creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sonseca
0.88
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Sonseca
1.65
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Sonseca+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonseca ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sonseca or draw
53%
Sonseca or Tarancón
74%
Draw or Tarancón
74%

Winning margin

Sonseca wins by 2+
10%
Tarancón wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sonseca 1+ goals
64%
Sonseca 2+ goals
27%
Sonseca 3+ goals
8%
Tarancón 1+ goals
77%
Tarancón 2+ goals
43%
Tarancón 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sonseca (draw refunded)
36%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonseca at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonseca attack 0.88 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Sonseca defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sonseca scores more
26%
level
26%
Tarancón scores more
47%

Tarancón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Sonseca 1–7 Tarancón

Tarancón beat Sonseca 7-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Juanes in Sonseca.