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Sonsbeck vs Union Frintrop — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Frintrop
Union Frintrop
F. Geisler 90+2'
R. Schoofs 63'
2/18/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sonsbeck52%
×Draw23%
Union Frintrop26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsbeck
1.84
Union Frintrop
1.23

Sonsbeck creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sonsbeck
1.86
Union Frintrop
0.97

allows per match

Sonsbeck
1.49
Union Frintrop
1.82

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par
Union Frintrop+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

Union Frintrop →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw
74%
Sonsbeck or Union Frintrop
77%
Draw or Union Frintrop
48%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+
29%
Union Frintrop wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals
84%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
55%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
28%
Union Frintrop 1+ goals
71%
Union Frintrop 2+ goals
35%
Union Frintrop 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
67%
Union Frintrop (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

Union Frintrop away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + Union Frintrop defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Union Frintrop attack 0.97 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sonsbeck scores more
52%
level
23%
Union Frintrop scores more
26%

Sonsbeck at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sonsbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
R. Schoofs
90+2'
F. Geisler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sonsbeck 2 – 0 Union Frintrop

Sonsbeck beat Union Frintrop 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 18, 2024.

Goals: R. Schoofs (63'), F. Geisler (90+2').

The match was played at Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark in Sonsbeck.