Sonsbeck 2–1 Hilden: Result & Stats

Sonsbeck

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden

2/9/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Nebenplatz SV Sonsbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sonsbeck35%

×Draw22%

Hilden42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonsbeckExpected goals in this matchHilden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.84

Sonsbeck

1.66

Hilden

1.84

Hilden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 91 away

1.86

creates per match

2.19

1.49

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sonsbeck

1.86

Hilden

2.19

allows per match

Sonsbeck

1.49

Hilden

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par

Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

Hilden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw

58%

Sonsbeck or Hilden

78%

Draw or Hilden

65%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+

17%

Hilden wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals

81%

Sonsbeck 2+ goals

49%

Sonsbeck 3+ goals

23%

Hilden 1+ goals

84%

Hilden 2+ goals

55%

Hilden 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)

45%

Hilden (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hilden attack 2.19 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sonsbeck scores more

35%

level

22%

Hilden scores more

42%

Hilden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff