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Sonsbeck vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
5/18/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 39Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sonsbeck61%
×Draw20%
FSV Duisburg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsbeck
2.27
FSV Duisburg
1.21

Sonsbeck creates 88% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sonsbeck
1.86
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Sonsbeck
1.49
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw
81%
Sonsbeck or FSV Duisburg
80%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
39%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+
39%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals
90%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
66%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
39%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
70%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
34%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
76%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sonsbeck scores more
61%
level
20%
FSV Duisburg scores more
19%

Sonsbeck at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sonsbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Sonsbeck 7–1 FSV Duisburg

Sonsbeck beat FSV Duisburg 7-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark in Sonsbeck.