Songo 1–0 Otôho d'Oyo: Result & Stats

Songo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Otôho d'Oyo

Lau King 81'

9/11/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundEstádio Nacional do Zimpeto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Songo57%

×Draw27%

Otôho d'Oyo16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SongoExpected goals in this matchOtôho d'Oyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.60

Songo

1.42

Otôho d'Oyo

0.60

Songo creates 137% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

1.20

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Songo

1.00

Otôho d'Oyo

0.00

allows per match

Songo

1.20

Otôho d'Oyo

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songo+0.00on par

Otôho d'Oyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songo ↓

Otôho d'Oyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Songo or draw

84%

Songo or Otôho d'Oyo

73%

Draw or Otôho d'Oyo

43%

Winning margin

Songo wins by 2+

29%

Otôho d'Oyo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Songo 1+ goals

76%

Songo 2+ goals

41%

Songo 3+ goals

17%

Otôho d'Oyo 1+ goals

45%

Otôho d'Oyo 2+ goals

12%

Otôho d'Oyo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Songo (draw refunded)

78%

Otôho d'Oyo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Otôho d'Oyo away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songo attack 1.00 + Otôho d'Oyo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Otôho d'Oyo attack 0.00 + Songo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Songo scores more

57%

level

27%

Otôho d'Oyo scores more

16%

Songo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Songo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Henriques← Laque

68'

R. Okouri← D. Massoumou

68'

H. Mohendiki← Mamadou Cissé

70'

Lau King← J. Banda

81'

Lau King

85'

Candinho← R. Djoumekou

86'

C. Kouvouama← M. Nkounkou

Songo

Otôho

1

14

23

15

27

24

29

20

▼

Cissé

28

▼

Nkounkou

2

▼

17

1

6

4

22

19

30

3

▼

Laque

10

▼

Banda

28

Amadú

14

▼

Djoumekou

17

Dário

Manager: Carlos Manuel

62'▲Henriques←▼Laque

70'▲Lau King←▼J. Banda

85'▲Candinho←▼R. Djoumekou

Songo substitutes

27Henriques16King18Candinho29Guirrugo9Kuwali13Amorim24Tico

Manager: A. Badra

68'▲R. Okouri←▼D. Massoumou

68'▲H. Mohendiki←▼Mamadou Cissé

86'▲C. Kouvouama←▼M. Nkounkou

Otôho d'Oyo substitutes

3Okouri5Mohendiki8Kouvouama26Bagayoko4Ondongo19Cissé21Biassadila22Traore25Ndzila