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Songkhla vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Songkhla
Songkhla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trat FC
Trat FC
9/19/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 6Tinsulanonda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Songkhla51%
×Draw26%
Trat FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songkhla
1.55
Trat FC
0.95

Songkhla creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Songkhla
1.53
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Songkhla
0.71
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Songkhla+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songkhla ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Songkhla or draw
77%
Songkhla or Trat FC
74%
Draw or Trat FC
49%

Winning margin

Songkhla wins by 2+
27%
Trat FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Songkhla 1+ goals
79%
Songkhla 2+ goals
46%
Songkhla 3+ goals
20%
Trat FC 1+ goals
61%
Trat FC 2+ goals
25%
Trat FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Songkhla (draw refunded)
69%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songkhla at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songkhla attack 1.53 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Songkhla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Songkhla scores more
51%
level
26%
Trat FC scores more
23%

Songkhla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Songkhla vs Trat FC

Songkhla beat Trat FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Tinsulanonda Stadium.