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Songkhla vs Suphanburi — FA Cup 2018

Songkhla
Songkhla
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
11/2/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundTinsulanon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Songkhla61%
×Draw17%
Suphanburi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songkhla
3.13
Suphanburi
1.88

Songkhla creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Songkhla
4.60
Suphanburi
2.56

allows per match

Songkhla
1.20
Suphanburi
1.67

finishing

Songkhla+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songkhla ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Songkhla or draw
78%
Songkhla or Suphanburi
83%
Draw or Suphanburi
39%

Winning margin

Songkhla wins by 2+
42%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Songkhla 1+ goals
95%
Songkhla 2+ goals
81%
Songkhla 3+ goals
59%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
85%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
56%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Songkhla (draw refunded)
74%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songkhla at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songkhla attack 4.60 + Suphanburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.13

Suphanburi attack 2.56 + Songkhla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Songkhla scores more
61%
level
17%
Suphanburi scores more
22%

Songkhla at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Songkhla vs Suphanburi

Suphanburi beat Songkhla 3-2 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Tinsulanon Stadium in Songkhla.