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Songkhla vs Rayong FC — FA Cup 2018

Songkhla
Songkhla
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
12/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Tinsulanon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Songkhla59%
×Draw17%
Rayong FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songkhla
3.05
Rayong FC
1.94

Songkhla creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Songkhla
4.60
Rayong FC
2.67

allows per match

Songkhla
1.20
Rayong FC
1.50

finishing

Songkhla+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songkhla ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Songkhla or draw
76%
Songkhla or Rayong FC
83%
Draw or Rayong FC
41%

Winning margin

Songkhla wins by 2+
40%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Songkhla 1+ goals
95%
Songkhla 2+ goals
80%
Songkhla 3+ goals
57%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
86%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
58%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Songkhla (draw refunded)
71%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songkhla at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songkhla attack 4.60 + Rayong FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 3.05

Rayong FC attack 2.67 + Songkhla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Songkhla scores more
59%
level
17%
Rayong FC scores more
24%

Songkhla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Songkhla 2–2 Rayong FC

Songkhla and Rayong FC drew 2-2 in FA Cup on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Tinsulanon Stadium in Songkhla.