Songkhla 2–2 Bangkok United: Result & Stats

Songkhla

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bangkok United

2/28/2024

FA Cup · Round of 16Tinsulanon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Songkhla52%

×Draw19%

Bangkok United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SongkhlaExpected goals in this matchBangkok United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.85

Songkhla

2.50

Bangkok United

1.85

Songkhla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

4.60

creates per match

2.50

1.20

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Songkhla

4.60

Bangkok United

2.50

allows per match

Songkhla

1.20

Bangkok United

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songkhla+0.00on par

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songkhla ↓

Bangkok United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Songkhla or draw

71%

Songkhla or Bangkok United

81%

Draw or Bangkok United

48%

Winning margin

Songkhla wins by 2+

32%

Bangkok United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Songkhla 1+ goals

92%

Songkhla 2+ goals

71%

Songkhla 3+ goals

45%

Bangkok United 1+ goals

84%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

55%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Songkhla (draw refunded)

64%

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Songkhla at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bangkok United away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Songkhla attack 4.60 + Bangkok United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bangkok United attack 2.50 + Songkhla defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Songkhla scores more

52%

level

19%

Bangkok United scores more

29%

Songkhla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff