Song Lam Nghe An vs Ho Chi Minh City — Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Song Lam Nghe An62%
Ho Chi Minh City16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Song Lam Nghe An creates 123% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Song Lam Nghe An ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches
Ho Chi Minh City away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.67 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92
Ho Chi Minh City attack 0.17 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Song Lam Nghe An at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Song Lam Nghe An host Ho Chi Minh City on Saturday, 30 May 2020 at 10:00. The match is part of the Cup 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Song Lam Nghe An vs Ho Chi Minh City
Song Lam Nghe An and Ho Chi Minh City drew 0-0 in Cup on May 30, 2020.
The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.