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Song Lam Nghe An vs Ho Chi Minh — V.League 1 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
7/8/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 6Sân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An44%
×Draw28%
Ho Chi Minh28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.33
Ho Chi Minh
1.00

Song Lam Nghe An creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 89 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.15
Ho Chi Minh
1.06

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.93
Ho Chi Minh
1.51

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Ho Chi Minh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
72%
Song Lam Nghe An or Ho Chi Minh
72%
Draw or Ho Chi Minh
56%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
21%
Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
74%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
38%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
15%
Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
63%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
26%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
61%
Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.06 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
44%
level
28%
Ho Chi Minh scores more
28%

Song Lam Nghe An at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Song Lam Nghe An 2–0 Ho Chi Minh

Song Lam Nghe An beat Ho Chi Minh 2-0 in V.League 1 on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.