Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ho Chi Minh vs Song Lam Nghe An — V.League 1 2019

Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
5/10/2026V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Ho Chi Minh46%
×Draw27%
Song Lam Nghe An27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh
1.44
Song Lam Nghe An
1.03

Ho Chi Minh creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.32
Song Lam Nghe An
0.90

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.16
Song Lam Nghe An
1.55

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw
73%
Ho Chi Minh or Song Lam Nghe An
73%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
54%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
23%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
76%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
42%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
18%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
64%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
28%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
63%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more
46%
level
27%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
27%

Ho Chi Minh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh vs Song Lam Nghe An

Ho Chi Minh beat Song Lam Nghe An 3-1 in V.League 1 on May 10, 2026.