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Song Lam Nghe An vs Dong Thap — Cup 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe Anadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dong Thap
Dong Thap
3/30/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsSân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An63%
×Draw19%
Dong Thap18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
2.33
Dong Thap
1.16

Song Lam Nghe An creates 101% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.67
Dong Thap
0.75

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.56
Dong Thap
3.00

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Dong Thap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
82%
Song Lam Nghe An or Dong Thap
81%
Draw or Dong Thap
37%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
41%
Dong Thap wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
90%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
67%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
41%
Dong Thap 1+ goals
69%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
32%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
78%
Dong Thap (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.67 + Dong Thap defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dong Thap attack 0.75 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
63%
level
19%
Dong Thap scores more
18%

Song Lam Nghe An at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Song Lam Nghe An 2–1 Dong Thap

Song Lam Nghe An beat Dong Thap 2-1 in Cup on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.