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Soneja vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Soneja
Soneja
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Soneja42%
×Draw28%
Racing CF Benidorm30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soneja
1.27
Racing CF Benidorm
1.04

Soneja creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Soneja
1.12
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Soneja
1.02
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Soneja or draw
70%
Soneja or Racing CF Benidorm
72%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
58%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+
19%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals
72%
Soneja 2+ goals
36%
Soneja 3+ goals
14%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
65%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
28%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)
58%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Soneja scores more
42%
level
28%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
30%

Soneja at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soneja vs Racing CF Benidorm

Soneja and Racing CF Benidorm drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Camp El Arco in Soneja.