Soneja 1–2 Ontinyent 1931: Result & Stats

Soneja

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ontinyent 1931

9/9/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Soneja40%

×Draw29%

Ontinyent 193131%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonejaExpected goals in this matchOntinyent 1931

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

Soneja

1.17

Ontinyent 1931

1.00

Soneja creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.12

creates per match

0.98

1.02

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Soneja

1.12

Ontinyent 1931

0.98

allows per match

Soneja

1.02

Ontinyent 1931

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Soneja or draw

69%

Soneja or Ontinyent 1931

71%

Draw or Ontinyent 1931

60%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+

17%

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals

69%

Soneja 2+ goals

33%

Soneja 3+ goals

11%

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

63%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

26%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)

56%

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Soneja scores more

40%

level

29%

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

31%

Soneja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff