Ontinyent 1931 0–1 Soneja: Result & Stats

Ontinyent 1931

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Soneja

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193146%

×Draw30%

Soneja25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ontinyent 1931Expected goals in this matchSoneja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Ontinyent 1931

1.23

Soneja

0.82

Ontinyent 1931 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

1.08

creates per match

1.02

0.63

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931

1.08

Soneja

1.02

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931

0.63

Soneja

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Soneja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Soneja →

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw

75%

Ontinyent 1931 or Soneja

70%

Draw or Soneja

54%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+

20%

Soneja wins by 2+

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals

71%

Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals

35%

Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals

13%

Soneja 1+ goals

56%

Soneja 2+ goals

20%

Soneja 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)

65%

Soneja (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Soneja away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Soneja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Soneja attack 1.02 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more

46%

level

30%

Soneja scores more

25%

Ontinyent 1931 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff