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Soneja vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Soneja
Soneja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
3/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 26Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Soneja41%
×Draw30%
Jove Español29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soneja
1.17
Jove Español
0.94

Soneja creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Soneja
1.12
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Soneja
1.02
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Soneja or draw
71%
Soneja or Jove Español
70%
Draw or Jove Español
59%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+
18%
Jove Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals
69%
Soneja 2+ goals
33%
Soneja 3+ goals
11%
Jove Español 1+ goals
61%
Jove Español 2+ goals
24%
Jove Español 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)
58%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Soneja scores more
41%
level
30%
Jove Español scores more
29%

Soneja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soneja vs Jove Español

Jove Español beat Soneja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Camp El Arco in Soneja.