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Soneja vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Soneja
Soneja
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CF Gandía
CF Gandía
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Soneja40%
×Draw28%
CF Gandía32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soneja
1.23
CF Gandía
1.07

Soneja creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Soneja
1.12
CF Gandía
1.13

allows per match

Soneja
1.02
CF Gandía
1.34

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par
CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

CF Gandía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Soneja or draw
68%
Soneja or CF Gandía
72%
Draw or CF Gandía
60%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+
17%
CF Gandía wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals
71%
Soneja 2+ goals
35%
Soneja 3+ goals
13%
CF Gandía 1+ goals
66%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
29%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)
55%
CF Gandía (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Soneja scores more
40%
level
28%
CF Gandía scores more
32%

Soneja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Soneja 0–1 CF Gandía

CF Gandía beat Soneja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Camp El Arco in Soneja.