Sonderjyske 0–3 Vendsyssel FF: Result & Stats

Sonderjyske

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vendsyssel FF

3/2/2024

1. Division · Round 20Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sonderjyske52%

×Draw24%

Vendsyssel FF25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchVendsyssel FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.12

Sonderjyske

1.73

Vendsyssel FF

1.12

Sonderjyske creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

1.75

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.75

Vendsyssel FF

1.15

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.09

Vendsyssel FF

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Vendsyssel FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

75%

Sonderjyske or Vendsyssel FF

76%

Draw or Vendsyssel FF

48%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

28%

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

82%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

52%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

25%

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

67%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

31%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

68%

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.75 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.15 + Sonderjyske defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

52%

level

24%

Vendsyssel FF scores more

25%

Sonderjyske at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff