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Sonderjyske vs Randers FC — Superliga 2026

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Randers FC
Randers FC
11/2/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Sonderjyske35%
×Draw25%
Randers FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.40
Randers FC
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.41
Randers FC
1.33

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.71
Randers FC
1.40

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.27scores more
Randers FC-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
60%
Sonderjyske or Randers FC
75%
Draw or Randers FC
65%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
16%
Randers FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
75%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
41%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
17%
Randers FC 1+ goals
78%
Randers FC 2+ goals
45%
Randers FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
46%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 22 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.41 + Randers FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Randers FC attack 1.33 + Sonderjyske defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
35%
level
25%
Randers FC scores more
40%

Randers FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Sonderjyske 1–4 Randers FC

Randers FC beat Sonderjyske 4-1 in Superliga on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sydbank Park in Haderslev.