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Sonderjyske vs Kolding IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
Preview
10:00
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
7/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
54%
Kolding IF
model favours
27%19%54%

Kolding IF score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
80%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sonderjyske27%
×Draw19%
Kolding IF54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.79
Kolding IF
2.53

Kolding IF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
2.00
Kolding IF
1.86

allows per match

Sonderjyske
3.20
Kolding IF
1.57

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
46%
Sonderjyske or Kolding IF
81%
Draw or Kolding IF
73%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
13%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
83%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
53%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
26%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
92%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
71%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
34%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 2.00 + Kolding IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kolding IF attack 1.86 + Sonderjyske defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
27%
level
19%
Kolding IF scores more
54%

Kolding IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sonderjyske score first in only 25% of matches
  • Sonderjyske and Kolding IF have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sonderjyske
LDWLW
IF
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sonderjyske vs Kolding IF — Match Preview

Sonderjyske face Kolding IF on July 17, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.