Sonderjyske 0–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Sonderjyske

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kolding IF

S. Yateke 90', 79' (pen)

7/4/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sonderjyske23%

×Draw19%

Kolding IF57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.44

Sonderjyske

1.52

Kolding IF

2.44

Kolding IF creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.88

3.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.67

Kolding IF

1.88

allows per match

Sonderjyske

3.00

Kolding IF

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

43%

Sonderjyske or Kolding IF

81%

Draw or Kolding IF

77%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

10%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

78%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

45%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

20%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

91%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

70%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

29%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.67 + Kolding IF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kolding IF attack 1.88 + Sonderjyske defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

23%

level

19%

Kolding IF scores more

57%

Kolding IF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'

S. YatekePenalty

90'

S. Yateke

Sonderjyske

Kolding

27

2

4

3

22

18

11

23

10

14

16

4

5

11

12

20

22

23

24

25

26

Manager: Thomas Darlie Nørgaard

Sonderjyske substitutes

1Flo2Olsen3Waever6Vinderslev8Bjorklund9Djantou14Hoppe17Gallegos27Pena28Pedersen29Rrahmani33Wagner31Cherif32VogtmannHoeg

Manager: Albert Rudé Rull

Kolding IF substitutes

Njai8Pedersen12Moller24Jorgensen17YatekeVadstrup5LeifssonWarrerLaugesen21Schmidt