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Sonderjyske vs Aalborg — Superliga 2018

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Aalborg
Aalborg
5/5/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 7Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Sonderjyske37%
×Draw25%
Aalborg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.39
Aalborg
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.33
Aalborg
1.32

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.44
Aalborg
1.45

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.00on par
Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
63%
Sonderjyske or Aalborg
75%
Draw or Aalborg
63%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
17%
Aalborg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
75%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
40%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
16%
Aalborg 1+ goals
75%
Aalborg 2+ goals
40%
Aalborg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
50%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 97 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.33 + Aalborg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aalborg attack 1.32 + Sonderjyske defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
37%
level
25%
Aalborg scores more
37%

Sonderjyske at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Sonderjyske 2–2 Aalborg

Sonderjyske and Aalborg drew 2-2 in Superliga on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Sydbank Park in Haderslev.