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Sonacos vs Ouakam — Ligue 1 2019

Sonacos
Sonacos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ouakam
Ouakam
5/19/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sonacos30%
×Draw40%
Ouakam30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonacos
0.65
Ouakam
0.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sonacos
0.66
Ouakam
0.49

allows per match

Sonacos
0.80
Ouakam
0.63

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par
Ouakam+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

Ouakam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–027%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
73%27%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw
70%
Sonacos or Ouakam
60%
Draw or Ouakam
70%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+
8%
Ouakam wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals
48%
Sonacos 2+ goals
14%
Sonacos 3+ goals
3%
Ouakam 1+ goals
48%
Ouakam 2+ goals
14%
Ouakam 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)
50%
Ouakam (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Ouakam away — creates 0.49, concedes 0.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + Ouakam defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.65

Ouakam attack 0.49 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Sonacos scores more
30%
level
40%
Ouakam scores more
30%

Sonacos at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Sonacos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sonacos 0–0 Ouakam

Sonacos and Ouakam drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Lat Dior in Thiès.