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Sonacos vs Oslo — Ligue 1 2019

Sonacos
Sonacos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oslo
Oslo
5/25/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Ely Manel Fall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sonacos38%
×Draw33%
Oslo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonacos
0.97
Oslo
0.80

Sonacos creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sonacos
0.66
Oslo
0.80

allows per match

Sonacos
0.80
Oslo
1.27

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par
Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw
71%
Sonacos or Oslo
67%
Draw or Oslo
62%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+
14%
Oslo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals
62%
Sonacos 2+ goals
25%
Sonacos 3+ goals
7%
Oslo 1+ goals
55%
Oslo 2+ goals
19%
Oslo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)
57%
Oslo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Oslo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + Oslo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Oslo attack 0.80 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sonacos scores more
38%
level
33%
Oslo scores more
29%

Sonacos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sonacos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sonacos 0 – 0 Oslo

Sonacos and Oslo drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ely Manel Fall in Diourbel.