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Sonacos vs Gorée — Ligue 1 2019

Sonacos
Sonacos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gorée
Gorée
11/12/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sonacos33%
×Draw36%
Gorée31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonacos
0.80
Gorée
0.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sonacos
0.66
Gorée
0.70

allows per match

Sonacos
0.80
Gorée
0.94

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par
Gorée+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

Gorée →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–116%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw
69%
Sonacos or Gorée
64%
Draw or Gorée
67%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+
11%
Gorée wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals
55%
Sonacos 2+ goals
19%
Sonacos 3+ goals
5%
Gorée 1+ goals
53%
Gorée 2+ goals
17%
Gorée 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)
52%
Gorée (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Gorée away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + Gorée defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Gorée attack 0.70 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Sonacos scores more
33%
level
36%
Gorée scores more
31%

Sonacos at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Sonacos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sonacos vs Gorée

Sonacos and Gorée drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Lat Dior in Thiès.